iblog

Matthew: President Mahmoud Abbas has dissolved his government in Gaza and declared a state of emergency as Hamas fighters run riot throughout the Gaza strip. All major strongholds of the moderate Fatah party and their security services have been captured by the fundamentalist Hamas party, who have now declared the strip to be an Islamist quasi-state. This effectively splits the territory further, with Palestine now comprising of the Hamas dominated Gaza Strip and Fatah’s West Bank. There has long been a history of animosity between the competing Palestinian factions. Hamas surprised the West last year by triumphing in democratic elections. However, Israel, the US and Europe refused to recognise Hamas as a legitimate government, calling it a terrorist organisation, and suspended aid. Fatah retained control of the Interior ministry, which handles security, despite the fact that constitutionally, it should have passed to Hamas. The capture of the Presidential compound in Gaza City yesterday was the turning point in the conflict, as it was the symbolic heart of Fatah’s powerbase. It has been the site of the imprisonment and torture of many Hamas fighters. Today they will hold Friday prayers in the compound to celebrate their victory. There is little in the way of hope for a successful coalition government to be formed between the two parties. Hamas refers to Fatah as traitors, collaborating with Israel and the West. Hamas view any attempt to make peace with Israel a betrayal of Islam. The events caused great concern in neighbouring Israel, which now has a fundamentalist Islam state which has vowed to destroy Israel on its Southern borders. “It has to be defined as a hostile and dangerous entity and be treated as such, because it is,” said Amos Gilad, a senior officer in the Israeli Defence Force. Israel is now expected to tighten its border controls and step up its military presence in the area. The current situation was catalysed by the Israeli withdrawal of its settlers from the strip in 2005. There are some calls from Israeli hardliners to cut off water and electricity to supplies to the strip, as this victory for Hamas increases the chances of a war between the Palestine and Israel.

Matthew: Tony Blair has set out the arguments which will influence the upcoming policy decisions regarding energy. Writing yesterday in The Times, Mr Blair suggests that current methods of energy production are unsustainable, and will need to replaced within twenty years. He draws the link between carbon emissions and global warming; saying what is now accepted wisdom, that we must produce our energy by methods whose end result is not pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The oft-cited Stern report estimates that global GDP will suffer by between 5 and 20 per cent per year as a result of climate change if emissions aren’t cut in the coming years. When Labour came to power in 1997, they aimed to cut carbon emissions by 20% by 2010. This target now looks very ambitious. Mr Blair also raises the issue of Britain’s dependency on other countries for energy. Although historically, Britain has been energy self sufficient, as supplies of North Sea oil and gas dwindle, we will increasingly be sourcing fuels from elsewhere. Relying on politically unstable, or even hostile, states for energy requirements presents a great risk to Britain’s national security. (See my article below] on the increasing hostility of Russia and its willingness to use its energy reserves as political currency.) Blair sums up his argument thus; “We need a policy that conforms to the rising concern about climate change and gives Britain the secure, safe and politically acceptable supplies of energy that our livelihood demands.” This article from the Prime Minister follows on from a lengthy and controversial consultation with industry and pressure groups, resulting in a recent government white paper. Alistair Darling presented the paper in the House of Commons, and said that he held the ‘preliminary view’ that development of nuclear facilities in this country should proceed. However, the government will continue consultations, and make a full announcement in the autumn. The government favours the development of nuclear power because of its low carbon footprint, and the fact that it can be produced in this country. Critics have pointed out that the Uranium required for nuclear fission will need to be imported from somewhere, and the supplies in friendly countries such as Australia are dwindling. Mr Darling also emphasised the government’s commitment to developing sources of alternative energy, which he hopes will cover 15 per cent of the UK’s energy requirements by 2020. It currently supplies around 5 per cent. However, the white paper reaches the conclusion that it is unrealistic to count on wind, solar and ocean power to supply this country with the majority of its energy. There is also to be more research into ‘carbon capture’ technology, which minimises the amount of carbon emissions produced by burning fossil fuels. However, this technology is still its infancy, and cannot be relied upon to reduce the country’s carbon footprint single-handedly.

Matthew: A diplomatic stalemate is on the cards after Russia flatly refused to extradite Andrei Lugovoi, whom the Crown Prosecution services wishes to put on trial for the murder of former Russian spy Alexander Litvenenko. The request comes after a six month police investigation into the murder, which took detectives around the world following a trail of radiation left by the poisonous radioactive substance that was used to kill Mr Litvinenko, Polonium 210. The prospects for the two powers coming to agreement look gloomy, as both camps used uncompromising language which doesn’t leave much in the way of middle ground to achieve a solution. Sir Ken Macdonald, Chief Prosecutor at the Crown Prosecution Service said "I have concluded that the evidence is sufficient to charge Andrei Lugovoi with the murder of Mr Litvinenko by deliberate poisoning. I have instructed CPS lawyers to take immediate steps to seek the early extradition of Andrei Lugovoi… so that he may be charged with murder and be brought swiftly before a court in London to be prosecuted for this extraordinarily grave crime." This statement was backed forcefully by Downing Street and the government. A spokesman for the Kremlin stated that the Russian constitution does not permit Russian nationals to be transported to foreign soil to face prosecution; the foreign state must present the evidence to a Russian court, where the trial will be carried out. If this were to happen in this case, it is likely that the prosecution would struggle to gain any ground, because of the potential implications for the involvement of the state of the murder. This marks a significant low point for relations between Britain and Russia, which are possibly at their most hostile since the end of the Cold War. Russia has been gradually hardening its foreign policy stance towards the West over the past months. It recently revoked the ‘Weapons in Europe’ treaty after Condoleeza Rice insisted that US anti-missile systems would be deployed in ex Warsaw pact countries Poland and Czech Republic. Although this treaty is now practically moot as it was put in place essentially to control Soviet tank divisions in Europe, it is a worrying symbolic gesture. It has also kicked European oil giant Royal Dutch Shell out of an oilfield in Sakhalin and replaced it with a state-owned company, and is threatening BP with similar moves. Russia is increasingly willing to use its energy reserves as political leverage against states it has disputes with. This strengthens the argument for moving Britain’s dependency away from oil and gas (of which Russia is a vital supplier) and towards a mix of Nuclear and alternative sources.